In a research note, a copy of which was obtained by MacRumors, Kuo believes that iPhone sales momentum could gradually decline in the new year, possibly enough for the device to experience its first year-over-year shipments decline in the first quarter of a year in 2016.
Kuo estimates iPhone shipments rose 2.1% Quarter-over-Quarter and 23.6% Year-over-Year to 48.5 million units in Q3 2015, of which 20-22 million units were iPhone 6s. Kuo attributes the growth to China’s being included as a first-wave release country this go-round, as well as increased output of the new model.
Kuo doesn’t see overall demand for the iPhone 6s to be significantly stronger than the iPhone 6, and expects shipments to gradually decline in Q4 2015-Q1 2016 (fiscal) Year-over-Year. He expects the first Year-over-Year iPhone shipments decline in Q1 of 2016.
As far as Apple’s other devices and computers go, Kuo forecasts between 14.5-15.5 million iPad shipments and 5.4-5.6 million Mac shipments in fiscal Q1 2016. He sees iPad Pro shipments to come in at around 2 million for fiscal Q1 2016, with the device’s higher price helping offset an annual decline in iPad shipments.
Kuo had previously forecasted iPad Pro shipments of 4-5 million units, and attributes the drop in his estimates to quality issues with supplier Sharp’s panel supply.
Mac sales are expected to continue to outpace those of other computer makers, with the 13.3-inch MacBook Pro being Apple’s best seller, followed by the 12-inch MacBook. Kuo expects the new 4K and 5K iMacs to account for at least 50-60% of all iMac shipments in fiscal Q1 2016.